A couple years ago, a top energy infrastructure analyst that I connect with regularly said that he thought Calgary downtown was ready for a renaissance. He thought better energy prices would help but he also told me that it was the large energy producers that would be the innovative leaders in this energy transition movement. From carbon capture to hydrogen initiatives, most of Canada’s best ideas are coming from Alberta. I say that as it appears that the Biden Administration has figured it out, and they know they need to support the energy industry and not try to demonize it. More on this in the coming weeks and for bright engineering students, think of Calgary versus Silicon Valley for the opportunities. One more comment, it is obvious that our incentives on carbon capture are extremely weak compared to the US. We do not need anymore brain drain again.
Jim Thorne provided his 2023 Outlook and his strong opinions that the economy is slowing is coming to true.
Japan came to Canada looking for LNG supplies as the Tristin Hooper writes.
Stewart Muir says: “Japan is on the record stating that if they can’t get gas/LNG from anywhere else they’ll have to get it from Russia. And they really, really would rather not get it from Russia. But they are. It is probably humiliating to the Japanese that they are forced to do it.” https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/business/toho-gas-russia-energy-sakhalin/
“Don’t forget that Mitsubishi is the Japanese consortium partner in LNG Canada. Getting the go ahead for phase 2 of this project is important. I’m sure this is something the Japanese PM will want to whisper in our PM’s ear, both knowing the project faces pitched opposition from the anti-development environmentalists including those Trudeau has surrounded himself with.”
The people at SAXO and Standard Charter come out with some far-fetched predictions each year and with what happened in 2022, you cannot discount anything these days. The G&M summarized their predictions.
The housing issue is a challenge, and the CEO of CAP REIT says it is not a time to pick on the REIT sector. I also added the latest Saretsky report.
Jim Paulsen of the Leuthold Group is a wise soul, and he is one of the very few that is bullish for 2023. Macro Voices had Luke Gorman on, and he gives his take on the market and how the US Government will fund their debt issuance.
Doomberg looked at the lack of economics of that Hydrogen project in Newfoundland.
The brilliant Smarter Markets podcast with Arjun Murti, the Former Head of Energy Equity Research at Goldman is worth the listen.
(Arjun starts by saying that the virtue signaling aspect of ESG, such as the good and the bad or the clean and dirty energy is something we can do without. All sources of energy is good he says and he focuses on the need to be pragmatic. He also knows that behind closed doors, the left knows this transition will take a real long time)
On the geopolitical side, George Friedman weighs on the reasons for talks between China and the Philippines. Did you know that a construction-related company in town has 65 employees working here on work permits?
Peter Zeihan also looks at China and has an interesting discussion with Joe Rogan.
An update on the real estate market and mortgage rates from Steve Saretsky.
On the job side, NPR looks at Gen Z and the reason we have such a shortage of skilled trades. BTW, a local construction related company has 65 workers from the Philippines working on projects in the region.
David Sacks sits down with Freddie Sayers and talks about Twitter and a big slowdown in the tech sector.
Finally, a great story about Juliane Miller. The Daily showcased this amazing story that happened over 50 years ago.
Ps…the rain is so bad in California that the Monterey Peninsula may get cut off- https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/monterey-peninsula-could-be-cutoff-after-atmospheric-river-pounding
Number 1 - The 2023 Market Forecast - The Pause that Refreshes
“Patience is a form of wisdom,” notes Jon Kabat-Zinn, creator of the Stress Reduction Clinic and the Center for Mindfulness in Medicine at the University of Massachusetts Medical School. It demonstrates that we understand and accept that sometimes things must unfold in their own time. In 2022, Wall St. and policymakers lost their patience. Their response resulted in the most aggressive tightening cycle in modern history. Raising rates does not accelerate an economy’s adjustment process to digest supply shocks. We likened it to a python digesting a pig, which takes considerable time. Unfortunately, in this instant gratification groupthink world, many lost their patience.
Number 2 - FIRST READING: Japan to beg for Canadian natural gas (because it worked so well for Germany)
Just like Europe, Japan is scrambling for natural gas after Russian supplies were cut off last year.
Number 3 - ‘Thoughts on Energy and Canadian Policy’ – Doomberg
They address that Hydrogen initiative in Newfoundland.
‘While the notion of using carbon-free energy to produce hydrogen to produce ammonia is indeed seductive, making ammonia using hydrogen derived from wind energy in Newfoundland (where no Haber-Bosch plants exist) for ultimate use in Germany, is insane.’
Number 4 - Energy Investing in 2023 | Arjun Murti, Former Head of Energy Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack
“To me, it is not climate friendly, it is not going to lower emissions, and it is not helpful to citizens of the world to have major financial institutions stop financing the energy that the world heavily depends on.”
Smarter Markets kick off the new year with Arjun Murti, the Former Head of Energy Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and the Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. SmarterMarkets™ host David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss some of the big issues facing energy investors in 2023.
(Arjun starts by saying that the virtue signaling aspect of ESG, the good and the bad or the clean and dirty energy, is something we can do without. All sources of energy is good…he focuses on the need to be pragmatic and he knows that behind closed doors, the left knows this transition will take a real long time.)
Number 5 - Chinese and the Philippines-George Friedman
“The key is reaching an understanding with the Philippines. Beijing and Manila have any number of reasons to distrust each other, so these negotiations are not even the beginning of serious thoughts. If talks become more serious, the United States has several ways it can counter, of course, but it raises the question of intentions and costs. China would likely pay a very high price for access to the Philippines because it is worth more than Taiwan, and it likely wouldn’t have to fight a potentially losing war to access it. The Philippines may not completely liberate China from the first island chain, but it is impossible to believe Beijing isn’t dreaming about it. Manila may be content to sit and wait, wondering what kind of toll it can extract from the U.S. for refusing an offer from China.”
Number 9 - David Sacks: The tech purge has only just begun
UnHerd’s Freddie Sayers meets PayPal Co founder David Sacks: Read accompanying article…
Number 10 - The Sunday Read: “She Fell Nearly 2 Miles, and Walked Away”
At 17, Juliane Diller was the sole survivor of a plane crash in the Amazon. Fifty years later she runs a research station founded by her parents.
On Christmas Eve in 1971, Juliane Diller, then 17, and her mother boarded a flight in Lima, Peru. She was headed for Panguana, a biological research station in the belly of the Amazon, where for three years she had lived, on and off, with her mother, Maria, and her father, Hans-Wilhelm Koepcke, both zoologists.
About 25 minutes after takeoff, the plane flew into a thunderstorm, was struck by lightning and broke apart. Strapped to her seat, Juliane fell some 10,000 feet, nearly two miles. Her row of seats is thought to have landed in dense foliage, cushioning the impact. Juliane was the sole survivor of the crash.
LANSA Flight 508 was the deadliest lightning-strike disaster in aviation history.
