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Top 10 Observations: Week of February 3, 2023

By February 2, 2023 No Comments

Hello

 

I start with 7 rules from Warren Buffett and this gentleman is such a treasure to listen to.

 

Jeff Currie of Goldman says we are in an environment that is ‘distinctively positive for commodities’ and today reminds him a lot of the 2007 time period.

He thinks the ‘green metals’ like copper, aluminum, nickel, silver, lithium, and cobalt will benefit the most with legislative changes. He also thinks, copper will have the smoothest ride and see a 43% upside in the space. (link below)

 

David Yager followed up on Eric Nuttall’s piece I shared last week about Qatar vs Canada and David says it is not as easy as you think.

 

Uranium…I was reminded that the $75B Chevron buyback is bigger than the entire market cap of the Uranium names (around $50B plus). I also heard that the Oliver Stone film called ‘Nuclear’ (NYT piece on it below) was presented in Davos (I am trying to find it) and then my business partner sent me this: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2023/01/25/on-inflecting-trends/

Steve Saratsky provides an update on real estate and mortgage markets as rates are slowing starting to tick down.

 

Toyota is an extremely well-run company, and they have a different EV strategy than the others. They also have a new CEO and I included an interesting WSJ piece.

 

The NY Times has a negative article on Elon’s Tesla company and my AI expert weighed in on how tough it is to make cars safe using technology.

 

Jen Gerson also addresses the big demographic problem that so many countries have.

 

My good friend sent me a piece on the importance of strength training, and I hope you find the Washington Post helpful.

 

The greatest QB of all time did not seem to do much strength training but that did not hold him back to establish many records that will never be broken. Tom Brady announced his retirement for good this time and I included the ESPN piece and I bet he will be part of the Super Bowl broadcast.

 

Have a great weekend!

 

David

Number 1 - Warren Buffett - You Only Need To Know These 7 Rules

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63oF8BOMMB8

 

Warren Buffett is the greatest investor of all time. If you had put 1,000 dollars into his investment company (Berkshire Hathaway) when he started it, you would now have over 30 million dollars. Such returns can seem unrealistic, but how did Buffett actually do it? The answer is, he understands what most people don’t and is sticking to a few key principles that you can implement in your everyday life. In this video you will learn all of them.

 

Warren E. Buffett is an American investor, philanthropist, business tycoon, and the chairman & CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is considered one of the most successful investors in the world and has a net worth of over 100 billion dollars. Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska. He developed an interest in business and investing in his youth and made truly incredible stock market returns over his career.

Number 2 - As China reopens, what’s ahead for commodities in 2023? - Jeff Currie

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29sZG1hbnNhY2hzLmNvbS9leGNoYW5nZXMtcG9kY2FzdC9mZWVkLnJzcw/episode/Mjc2NDJhMmEtOWI3Mi0xMWVkLTk0YjQtYTc4MjFmZGJkNDdh?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahcKEwjAjY-Oke38AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ&hl=en-CA

 

Commodities were the best-performing asset class in 2022 but have recently taken a hit as recession fears loom. So what’s in store for them in 2023? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman SachsJeff Currie, global head of commodities research, explains why commodities are poised to outperform.

Number 3 - David Yager: Qatar, Norway and ‘The Trouble with Canada’

Resource developers in Canada face unique geographical, jurisdictional, regulatory and political obstacles

https://pipelineonline.ca/david-yager-qatar-norway-and-the-trouble-with-canada/#/?playlistId=0&videoId=0

 

That Germany has given up on Canada to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) and instead signed a massive multi-year LNG purchase agreement with Qatar has left many angry and disappointed.

 

Norway has over 1,000 years of history shared by a relatively homogenous population with similar views on many issues. Norway has a clear sense of its national identity.

As a country, Canada has only 156 years in its current form and is comprised of Indigenous people and newcomers from all over the world who are still getting to know each other.

 

In the endless pursuit of politeness, today’s Canada recognizes multiple nations within its borders.

Norway and Qatar only have one.

 

While relatively new as a country, Qatar is ruled by a “semi-constitutional” monarchy where the major decisions about economic development are made by a handful of people.

 

Canada has three layers of elected governments – federal, provincial and municipal – that have turned jurisdictional disputes, excessive regulation, and transferring more of everything to the public sector into an industry.

 

Regrettably, saying that Canada should be more like Norway or Qatar without understanding why it can’t be deflects attention away from our challenges and solution.

Number 4 - Nuclear Energy

Oliver Stone Goes Nuclear at Davos-At the WEF, the provocative filmmaker received a warm reception for his film promoting nuclear power.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/business/dealbook/oliver-stone-nuclear-davos-wef.html

Number 6 - Toyota Rethinks EV Strategy With New CEO (WSJ)

The auto maker’s new boss will confront a question dividing the corporate world: whether to take gradual steps or big leaps ahead in the move to green technology

https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyota-akio-toyoda-koji-sato-evs-electric-vehicles-new-ceo-11675008222?mod=djem10point

 

See PDF…

Number 7 - Elon Musk’s Appetite for Destruction

A wave of lawsuits argue that Tesla’s self-driving software is dangerously overhyped. What can its blind spots teach us about the company’s erratic C.E.O.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/magazine/tesla-autopilot-self-driving-elon-musk.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230201&instance_id=84219&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=86163405&segment_id=124093&te=1&user_id=c848c4ce835cbe9b3d32a5ba2eaa0841

 

See PDF…

 

My AI expert added this :“ This otherwise excellent article unfortunately shares common misconceptions about AI implementations on digital computers. There are theoretical limitations on what digital AI can achieve when interacting with real world environment. The limits are theoretical and fundamental, tweaking software or feeding more data into AI is not going to make fully autonomous driving a reality.”

 

Number 8 - Jen Gerson: We are probably doomed, though

But not for the reasons you think.

https://theline.substack.com/p/jen-gerson-we-are-probably-doomed?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=70032&post_id=99843610&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

 

I’m going to start this column with one of those big, bold claims that is likely to get me into some trouble: Elon Musk is right. The biggest existential risk facing humanity today isn’t climate change.  It’s demographic collapse.  Hold on. Hold on. Take a deep breath. Stay with me.

Number 9 - Strength training may be as important as aerobic exercise for a longer life - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/01/29/strength-training-all-ages/

 

While aerobic exercise has long taken the lead in physical activity guidelines, researchers are finding that biceps curls and bench presses might be equally important for health and longevity.

Strength training — exercise that increases muscle strength by making muscles work against a weight or force (such as gravity) — was added to the 2010 Global Recommendations on Physical Activity for Health.

In a recent meta-analysis combining 16 studies and data from over 1.5 million subjects, muscle-strengthening activities were associated with almost a 20 percent lower risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, lung cancer and all-cause mortality.

“Strength training confers a host of health benefits independent of aerobic exercise,” said Daniel J. McDonough, a researcher at the University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health and co-author of a large study that looked at the effect of aerobic and muscle-strengthening exercise on mortality. Adding some muscle also improves physical fitness and bone mineral density and reduces the risk of musculoskeletal injury.

We hope you found the Top Ten interesting this week, and are looking forward to another selection of articles, stories, and commentary next week. If you know of anyone else who would be interested in receiving our weekly note, please let me know.

 

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