Hello…nice to have real spring weather for a change.
This week’s top ten starts with another worry due to higher interest rates, a slowing economy and a change in work environments. Morgan Stanley thinks commercial real estate has many problems and joins regional banks and private equity as the concern areas for investors.
Two great independent writers tackle two important subjects; Brad Hayes of Big Media calmly addresses the true challenges of this energy transition story. Margareta Dovgal is the managing director at Resource Works and talks about an area that is a focus of mine. When you look at the capacity limits of BC Hydro, the idea that we can go to all electric in BC needs a reality check. What is nice about Margareta is that she is in that under 30 age group, and her wisdom and perspectives is so needed with that generation.
Peter Zeihan looks at the Green Energy transition and his comments are always helpful.
On the podcast side, Smarter Markets have a number of guests on and two of my favourites share their thoughts. Jeff Currie and Helima Croft provide their viewpoints after attending a large conference. While David Rosenberg provides his usual bearish outlook on Macro Voices.
The people at Doomberg are brilliant and they challenge the narrative on so many fronts. Today they came out with a commentary on why these Russian sanctions make no sense and something they have been saying for sometime.
Commodities have been challenging lately as China has reopened but there has been no follow through on the prices of commodities. Ole Hanson is one of the best and was on Macro Voices this week.
On the local side, Les Leyne addresses what Eby is up to on the housing side, and he talks about development in Vancouver. Also, a retired police officer gives a great opinion piece in the Times Colonist about crime in Victoria. I also remind my readers what a famous economist said regarding the best way to deal with poverty.
David and Amy
PS…make sure you complete the Vital Signs survey as it is so important to the Victoria Foundation.
Number 1 - Morgan Stanley analysts think commercial real estate is heading for something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’
—here’s what Goldman Sachs and UBS have to say
Number 3 - BC Hydro’s impossible task - Resource Works
https://www.resourceworks.com/bc-hydros-impossible-task
The state of BC’s soon-to-be-swamped electrical grid and the province’s hastened net zero ambitions appear to be increasingly divorced from one another, and – without significant change in either capacity or timelines – from reality. Think of BC Hydro, then, as sitting much less comfortably these days, and facing some seriously Sisyphean challenges.
Number 5 - Smarter Markets
http://smartermarkets.media/special-episode-scenes-from-the-ft-live-commodities-global-summit-2023/
Scenes from the FT Live Commodities Global Summit 2023
The Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor, Leslie Hook, provides an introduction to this special release, with guest appearances from Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie, RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft, Vitol’s Michael Curran, International Emissions Trading Association’s Alasdair Were and Joe Raia of Abaxx Exchange.
Number 7 - The Peter Principle - Doomberg
“Russia’s energy is going to find its way to the market, and, as perverse as it might sound, we should want it to. Instead of attacking the supply of Putin’s energy, we should be doing everything in our power to increase ours. That is the only way to lower price and materially impact the funding of his war machine. For highly inelastic products like oil and natural gas, price action works both ways. It does not take significant undersupply for prices to skyrocket, nor does it take significant oversupply for prices to crash.”
The tragic conflict in Ukraine will drag on until the West increases its domestic production of energy and floods the world with supply. Absent that, Putin’s ability to turn the tables on our sanctions and increase his revenue will continue unabated. If only someone could have seen this coming.
Number 8 - MacroVoices #373 Ole Hansen: Commodities Update
https://www.macrovoices.com/1196-macrovoices-373-ole-hansen-commodities-update
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ole Hansen to MacroVoices. Erik and Ole discuss:
- Outlook on US interest rates
- Inflation – where do we go from here?
- US/China trade relations and its impact on commodities
- Backwardation and contango
- Oil prices
- US/Europe natural gas arbitrage
- Copper & precious metals
- Is it time for all-time highs for gold?
Number 9 - Les Leyne: NIMBY override is part of province's housing plan
The “not in my backyard” objections to new housing in the NDP government’s latest push won’t carry nearly the weight they once did
Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon gave NIMBYs a taste of what’s to come on Tuesday.
Number 10 - Please Victoria : Do not ignore public safety
Responsibility to the Poor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rls8H6MktrA&t=83s
“Never history been a better machine dealing with poverty than the free enterprise system and the free markets.”
We hope you found the Top Ten interesting this week, and are looking forward to another selection of articles, stories, and commentary next week. If you know of anyone else who would be interested in receiving our weekly note, please let me know.
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