Hello
We have a top ten that touches on a variety of subjects this week and we start with Jeremy Siegel who is saying that inflation is down to the target rate. I have been reminding people that we should have more worries about deflation versus inflation these days.
On the housing side, Steve Saretsky talks about whether the recent housing price strength in Canada is a ‘sucker rally’. Also, the Fraser Institute explains the housing mismatch we have. And as I have shared before, the BC NDP government are forcing changes whether people like it or not as Les Leyne explains.
We then include an interesting piece from Neil Howe, and he explains this ‘Fourth Turning’ we may be going through. We attached the entire article.
The Fraser Institute also produced a piece this week that shows the public sector is getting paid better than the private sector.
AI is going to produce many changes and Peter Zeihan gives listeners an idea of where jobs will and will not be affected.
Rachel Walsh of BMO was on Smarter Markets and Mark Neuman explains some the ESG issues out there.
Speaking of ESG, the WSJ explains how the Most Prolific Logger Recasts Itself as Environmental Do-Gooder.
Finally, the NHL playoffs have started, and CBS Sports gives some first impressions. Is it going to be another early exit for the Leafs?
David
PS….it always important for the Victoria Foundation to get feedback for their annual Vital Signs initiative. This year, I think it is more important than ever here is a link to the survey.
Number 4 - Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning is Here
Why You Should Read: Generational change expert Neil Howe adeptly connects declining global growth with demographic divergences. He has said for a long time the “Fourth Turning” would bring profound changes. Now they’re here, and will affect the economy and everything else.
Key Points:
- The most mysterious and also pervasive cause of lower growth is “declining business dynamism” which is not simply economic.
- Economic performance and social/political moods are all part of one large system, connected by multiple feedback loops.
- The US entered its “Fourth Turning” era about 2008. The global financial crisis, the rise of populism and the pandemic all revealed society’s pillars had been decaying for decades.
- Incompetent governance, ebbing public trust and declining civil order all feed on one another in a vicious circle.
- The generational contrast is stark between older generations raised amid abundance and younger ones who have seen only shrinking opportunity and weakening institutions.
- Global surveys indicate a growing dissatisfaction with democracy itself.
Bottom Line: Howe foresees a “phase transition” in which “the dysfunctional pieces of the old regime will be reintegrated in ways we can hardly now imagine.” These Fourth Turnings happen roughly every 80 years; the last two coincided with the Civil War era and the Great Depression/World War II. Howe expects something of that scale this time, too… and soon
Number 5 - Comparing Government and Private Sector Compensation in Canada, 2023 Edition – Fraser Institute
(Government workers paid 8.5% higher wages than private-sector workers)
Main Conclusions
- Using data on individual workers from January to December 2021, this report estimates the wage differential between the government and private sectors in Canada. It also evaluates four non-wage benefits for which data are available to quantify differences in the compensations offered by the two sectors in these provinces.
- After controlling for factors like sex, age, marital status, education, tenure, size of firm, job permanence, immigrant status, industry, occupation, province, and city, the authors found that Canada’s government-sector workers (from federal, provincial, and local governments) enjoyed an 8.5% wage premium, on average, over their private-sector counterparts in 2021. When the wage difference between unionized and non-unionized workers is taken into account, the wage premium for the government sector declines to 5.5%.
- Available data on non-wage benefits suggest that the government sector enjoys an advantage over the private sector. For example, 86.6% of government workers are covered by a registered pension plan compared to 22.9% of private-sector workers. Of those covered by a registered pension plan, 90.6% of government workers enjoyed a defined-benefit pension compared 39.9% of private-sector workers.
- In addition, government workers retire earlier than those in the private-sector—about 2.4 years earlier on average—and were much less likely to lose their jobs: 1.0% in the public sector compared to 4.8% in the private sector. Moreover, full-time workers in the government sector lost more work time in 2021 for personal reasons (14.9 days on average) than their private-sector counterparts (9.8 days).
Number 7 - Rachel Walsh, Carbon Innovation Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
“These competing narratives are unfortunate given the need for immediate action in order to meet these ambitious climate goals. While I think it’s completely necessary to address issues that exist in these markets and improvements that need to take place, it also needs to be realized that [voluntary carbon markets] are an effective and critical tool to help reach netzero.”
http://www.smartermarkets.media/carbon-frontiers-episode-9-rachel-walsh/
Number 8 - ESG Truths from Academia. Top university scholars reveal ESG shortcomings and misguided beliefs.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/esg-truths-from-academia-top-university-scholars-mark-a-neuman-cfa/
My biggest takeaway:
ESG is an investing ruse, a false pretense, filled with more opinion than fact (ex-ante, ex-post results are completely random, lucky at best, disastrous at worst) and laden with emotional heart tugs. Those playing the ethically superior card or doing it for a hedge on rising environmental costs going forward are accepting of lower returns. No one selling ESG products admits that up front. I’m not even sure they care about ESG as much as AUM, fees, and power.
Number 9 - America’s Most Prolific Logger Recasts Itself as Environmental Do-Gooder
(Weyerhaeuser uses new climate math to court green investors, while cutting down as many trees as ever)
We hope you found the Top Ten interesting this week, and are looking forward to another selection of articles, stories, and commentary next week. If you know of anyone else who would be interested in receiving our weekly note, please let me know.
Schneider Wealth Management is a trade name of Aligned Capital Partners Inc. (ACPI)* – ACPI is regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (www.iiroc.ca) and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (www.cipf.ca). David Schneider is registered to advise in securities and/or mutual funds to clients residing in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario. This publication is for informational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute any form of investment advice. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and may not necessarily be those of ACPI. Opinions expressed are as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice and information has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. This publication has been prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. You should not act or rely on the information without seeking the advice of the appropriate professional.
Investment products are provided by ACPI and include, but are not limited to, mutual funds, stocks, and bonds. Non-securities related business includes, without limitation, fee-based financial planning services; estate and tax planning; tax return preparation services; advising in or selling any type of insurance product; any type of mortgage service. Accordingly, ACPI is not providing and does not supervise any of the above noted activities and you should not rely on ACPI for any review of any non-securities services provided by Schneider Wealth Management. Any investment products and services referred to herein are only available to investors in certain jurisdictions where they may be legally offered and to certain investors who are qualified according to the laws of the applicable jurisdiction. The information contained does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any product or service. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. Content may not be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent of the author and ACPI.
