Hello
I start this week’s top ten with the monthly summary from Jim Thorne. He was almost by himself saying that inflation had peaked months ago and that the interest rate hikes were damaging to an already fragile economy. His projections are coming true and I attached his monthly update.
Last weekend there was big news from OPEC that caused oil prices to spike. We added a story on that, plus another bullish commentary from Eric Nuttall.
My bright investment contacts all like the Natural Gas space in Canada for the long term. The people at G&R think the weather for the last year has provided a great buying opportunity.
The housing and rental issues are front and center in Canada and Steve Saretsky showcases a very critical assessment from a Big 5 Bank Economist. Yes, our governments have compounded the problem.
It always good to cherish the wisdom of some wise people. I included Warren Buffett’s first TV interview and 96 year old Vernon Smith weighs in on Biden’s budget, how government causes inflation, and why bailing out Silicon Valley Bank was a bad idea.
Brian Belski was on CNBC yesterday and is bullish on the banks, asset managers and the broker dealers.
I also remember hearing a story that Sidney Crosby called Hockey Canada HQ to offer his services in Paris for Team Canada at the Worlds in 2016 (the Pens list in the first round). Sidney captained the team to a gold medal, and he was voted the MVP. Tyson Barrie told me that he never played for a better leader and captain.
It is Master’s Week and for a different type of story on Augusta, I take you to what happened 40 years ago when Ronald Reagan was playing the 16th hole.
Have a great weekend
David and Amy
Number 1 - Jim Thorne - It looks like this holy fool was right - What Now?
I’m still holding onto my view that markets will travel down the same path taken in the 1994-95 episode. With some luck, we will look back on this episode and say it was easy, as a great buying opportunity for those who took advantage. But it’s never easy.
April Market Insights by Dr. James Thorne – It Looks Like This Holy Fool Was Right
Number 2 - OPEC is cutting not a surprise: Hemmed-in: Asia diesel glut grows after Russia ban | Reuters
Commodities are fungible. It takes time for supply routes to adjust to shocks they have. Massive glut is diesel in Asia.. OPEC cut was the next move.
Number 5 - Steve Saretsky
I have a few things to say here but i’ll pass the mic to Scotiabanks chief economist Derek Holt…
“There are macroeconomic distortions stemming from all of this spending that include but are not limited to the following and that follow from yesterday morning’s note:
- it has contributed to some of the inflationary pressures that represent a highly regressive tax on lower and middle income Canadians while nevertheless transferring seigniorage revenues. They are being helped with one hand and hit with the other.
- it has contributed to a higher BoC policy rate than would otherwise be the case.
- it has contributed to worker shortages as public sector jobs are up 420k since just before the pandemic and account for 51% of all jobs created in Canada over that time. No wonder businesses are struggling to find workers!!
- it has contributed toward higher wage pressures and imo some of the productivity problem in this country where public policy has emphasized the body count in job markets over what is produced by whom.
- it has worsened competitiveness problems through spending that is primarily focused upon redistributive social transfers.
- In a broader public policy sense, Ottawa’s housing strategy remains confusing. The BoC is trying to contain inflationary pressures and soften previously raging house prices. The Feds have thrown open the immigration doors into a market with no supply while another tax subsidy to housing starts up on Saturday in the form of the 1st time homebuyers tax-free home savings account that allows one to shelter up to $40k tax free with annual contributions of $8k. Housing is going to rip after a temporary retrenchment and there goes the BoC’s efforts.
In all, I’m not impressed. This budget adds to macroeconomic imbalances and divides folks at a time when unity is needed to address the country’s challenges. Governments did a fantastic job in the early days of the pandemic. The problem is that they are now addicted to high spending and delivering divisive jabs at certain interests. Nothing is being done about productivity and competitiveness pressures that are mounting year by year. Big spending, big deficits, big debt, high taxes, high inflation and bond market challenges are not the path to prosperity.”
Number 6 - Warren Buffett’s Most Iconic Interview Ever
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OcegOGAGIs
Legendary value investor Warren Buffet in his first ever interview broadcasted on national television. Buffet describes his investment style and how he analyzes businesses.
Number 7 - Nobel-winning economist: Democrats are committed 'to spending other people's money'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uetu2AlHn_Y
96 year old Vernon Smith weighs in on Biden’s budget, how government causes inflation, and why bailing out Silicon Valley Bank was a bad idea.
Number 8 – Brian Belski on CNBC
Belski said this am that he may not be invited back on CNBC after yesterday’s appearance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNPfQKtziFc
He likes the banks, asset managers and broker dealers.
We hope you found the Top Ten interesting this week, and are looking forward to another selection of articles, stories, and commentary next week. If you know of anyone else who would be interested in receiving our weekly note, please let me know.
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