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Top 10 Observations: Week of Dec 1st, 2023

By November 30, 2023 No Comments

Hello,

I commence this edition with a delightful video tribute featuring humor and wisdom from the revered Charlie Munger. His impact on the business world is evident, and many fortunate business associates had the opportunity to meet this remarkable individual.

 

In the realm of financial insights, BMO’s 2024 Outlook has been released, featuring an insightful BNN interview with Brian Belski. Full report is attached.

 

Echoing a sentiment shared by David Rosenberg, Jim Thorne advocates for the merits of investing in bonds. Notably, rates have dipped, with the 5-year Canada reaching 3.614% from its peak of 4.45%. Anticipate a corresponding decline in mortgage rates.

 

Ken Peacock from the BCBC offers a compelling summary elucidating the significant implications of CleanBC on our economy. I highly recommend taking the time to delve into this valuable resource and sharing it with others. The negative implication to future generations is immense and I just cannot believe the moves this provincial government is making these days.

 

Shifting focus to federal matters, Brian Lilly engages in a conversation with William Robson of the C.D. Howe Institute, shedding light on the magnitude and challenges posed by our high debt situation.

 

Exploring unintended consequences in the pursuit of environmental goals, a reduction in sulphur in cruise ships is examined in an article from Carbon Brief.

Speaking of unintended outcomes, concerns arise regarding the impact of new Airbnb rules on hotel costs. This issue encompasses factors such as airfare, local hotel expenses, and the overall cruise experience. Notably, Seattle has surpassed Vancouver in total cruise line business, posing an interesting shift in the market dynamics. Just 23 years ago, Vancouver had 100% of the Alaskan Cruise Business in the Pacific NW. Yet again, decision makers do not understand the collateral damage of their moves. PS…the damage to the tourism industry in the Okanagan will be immense I am told.

 

The brilliant team at G&R produced a new commodity commentary that I attached. They like Oil, Nat Gas, Uranium, and they do the best work on inventories as it relates to CAPEX spending.

 

The news in Osoyoos is a reminder when municipalities wait too long to upgrade infrastructure projects. Taxes are going up 39%.

 

A heartening segment on 60 Minutes showcases widows from Ukraine experiencing the wonders of touring the Alps—a touching and uplifting story.

 

Concluding on a cultural note, Bradley Cooper’s commendable work as both an actor and director, particularly in “A Star is Born,” is celebrated. His upcoming project with Netflix on the legendary Leonard Bernstein is previewed, featuring an insightful interview with the New Yorker.

 

Wishing you an enlightening exploration of these diverse topics.

 

Best regards,

David

Number 4-The economic costs of CleanBC – with BCBC chief economist Ken Peacock

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qa7jeaUD2fs

Business Council of British Columbia senior vice-president and chief economist Ken Peacock walks BIV editor-in-chief Hayley Woodin Hastings through BCBC analysis of CleanBC – the province’s plan to lower greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

Number 5-Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland driving Canada off a fiscal cliff.

https://youtu.be/NOCroVMCkJA?si=Aiy_ezUyjuiylavv

The financial trouble the Trudeau Liberals have put Canada in looks disturbingly unlike previous debt and deficit hangovers, as William Robson tells Brian Lilley this week. The losses Ottawa has pushed onto the Bank of Canada are choking off desperately needed income, explains Robson, President and CEO of the C.D. Howe Institute. Wages are losing ground. Business investment indicators are the worst since the 1940s. Unfunded pensions are soaring. Federal spending keeps rising. And the government continues adding enormous immigration inflows to a strained economy. Canada, Robson says, is “going down a very strange path” — and Ottawa seems not to care. (Recorded November 24, 2023)

Number 7-Dr. Jevons or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Demand – G&R

Natural Resource Market Commentary – 3Q2023

The Green Mirage: Unmasking the Harsh Realities of Renewable Energy Invest­ments

Uranium: New Market Star

The Great Convergence: North American Natural Gas and the Looming Shift in Global Energy Economics

Rising Rates and Robust Gold Demand?

Oil: From Uninvestible to Must Own

Copper Technological Trends Loom

Seeds of Crisis: The Tumultuous Journey of Global Crops

“It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equiva­lent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth.” William Stanley Jevons, The Coal Question, 1865.2023.Q3 GR Market Commentary

We hope you found the Top Ten interesting this week, and are looking forward to another selection of articles, stories, and commentary next week. If you know of anyone else who would be interested in receiving our weekly note, please let me know.

 

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