We start this year’s first top ten with some predictions for 2023 and some interesting interviews. Firstly though, a chart that shows the 2022 returns for many indexes and other assets classes.
David Rosenberg is again not so ‘rosy’ as we start the year as he looks at the many issues of this bear market. I also added many links to energy outlooks and how that sector has not started out so well in this first week.
Macro Voices had the brilliant Darius Dale on their show today and he is looking at more tightening and a recession not until late 2023 or early 2024. His big red flag is the credit cycle worries that will kick in after the rate hikes are done.
Over the decades Saskatchewan has been the birthplace of many energy leaders of Canada and right now, Grant Fagerheim is one of those. His recent interview is included, and Whitecap is one of the innovative pioneers in carbon sequestration through enhanced oil recovery.
Charlie Munger turned 99 on January 1st and those that have the time, his recent interview is included. I also added Part 2 of a series with Robert Friedland and Josh Crumb which is very interesting.
We have these Electric Vehicle mandates coming to Canada and I thought I would add comments from Peter Zeihan on how tough it will be to find the metals needed. I also included an article about how expensive it would be in Canada.
I have many friends connected to the Canadian Military and I include a piece from the CBC. “It’s almost unprecedented to hear a Canadian chief of the defense staff speak publicly in such uncompromising terms.”
The Money Night Football Game will be one we will all remember, and it is good to hear Damar Hamlin awake this am and talking to relatives. A good news story for the event is what has happened to a toy drive that Damar started is his hometown. Damar grew up with little means but his impact to his community that he cherishes will be bigger than he ever thought!
Number 3- MacroVoices #357 Darius Dale: The Recession is Coming But Not Until the Second Half
MacroVoices Erik Townsend welcomes 42 Macro founder Darius Dale to the show. Darius told us one year ago that 2022 could be a crash year for the stock market, and needless to say he got the bear call right. They discuss his current outlook for economic cycles, stocks, and commodities including gold. https://bit.ly/3iahs7j
Number 4 - Oil Outlooks
For those interested in dissecting the various views on what 2023 will bring here is a bunch of outlooks for this year: Goldman Sachs (LINK) JP Morgan (LINK) Morgan Stanley (LINK) Bank of America (LINK) BlackRock (LINK) HSBC (LINK) Barclays (LINK) Citi (LINK) UBS (LINK) Credit Suisse (LINK) BNP Paribas (LINK) Deutsche Bank (LINK) Apollo Global Management (LINK) Wells Fargo (LINK) BNY Mellon (LINK) Fidelity International (LINK).
Number 5 - An interesting interview here from the Financial Post with Whitecap Resource’s CEO, Grant Fagerheim.
In it, he talks about carbon sequestration through enhanced oil recovery (EOR), US vs Canadian energy policy, Alberta’s Sovereignty Act and more. The article itself isn’t overly long but worth a read. Recall, Whitecap’s EOR operations currently sequester ~2 million tonnes of CO2 per year, primarily underground at its Weyburn project in southeast Saskatchewan. For contrast, the largest operating direct air carbon capture plant in the world, Climeworks’ “Orca” captures 4,000 tonnes of CO2 per year.
- While obviously this is not a 100% fair comparison, it highlights an important point raised by many industry experts. If Canada were able to come to terms with the importance of our oil & gas industry and support processes like EOR (with specific stipulations) like the US now does, the result would be lower global emissions
- This failure on the part of the government to come to terms with our role as a country has led to disastrous infighting which has hampered progress and weighed down growth
- This identity crisis Canada has developed over the years has led us directly to Alberta’s sovereignty act, a piece of legislation Fagerheim applauds in the interview. Mr. Fagerheim notes this legislation will help provide more certainty on the Provincial governments support of their key industry.
Number 6 - Charlie Munger Abridged!
(the man turned 99 on January 1st and he still has it all together)
Number 7 - Smarter Markets-Part 2 with Robert Friedland and Josh Crumb
Holiday Special | Robert Friedland, Founder & Executive Chairman, Ivanhoe Mines and Josh Crumb, Founder & CEO, Abaxx Technologies
“The problem is, none of us have a super-conducting super-colliding super-computer that can actually track all of the world’s technological breakthroughs. When you look at CNN that’s constantly negative news, you get the idea that humanity is fated to fail. But if you had a super-conducting super-colliding super-computer that knew what all the young new Steve Jobs’ and Bill Gates’ of the world were cooking up, maybe there would be grounds for optimism.
We close out the year with Part 2 of our Holiday Special with Robert Friedland, Founder & Executive Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines, and Josh Crumb, Founder & CEP of Abaxx Technologies. SmarterMarkets™ host David Greely sits down with Robert and Josh to continue looking back at how the SmarterMarkets™ vision has developed over the past two years and discuss where it’s going next.
Number 8 – Electric Vehicles
Peter Zeihan-EV’s Not-so-little Dirty Secret(s)
Peter says the physical constraints are huge…”we need double the amount of copper and zinc, 4 times the amount of chromium and 10 times the graphite and lithium. The world has never been able to increase the volume by a factor of two of anything it needs (vegetable, animal or mineral) in ten years. We are also losing a lot of processing capacity”
Proposed Electric Vehicle Mandate Will Cost at Least $99 Billion: Environment Canada
Number 9 - As 2023 dawns, Canada's top soldier confronts a long list of worst-case scenarios
“We need to be concerned because our national prosperity is based on the stability in the existing order,” Eyre said. “And if we can’t defer or deter and defend that, or if we can’t work with our friends, partners and allies to create stability in that order, we’re going to suffer.”
The supply chain disruptions and soaring energy and food prices — driven by rampant inflation triggered by the onset of major hostilities between Ukraine and Russia last winter — could be just a taste of what lies ahead, Eyre suggested.
Number 10 - Fans give millions to Damar Hamlin's toy drive for kids
Damar Hamlin‘s goal was simple: He wanted to raise $2,500 online to buy toys for needy kids.
