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Top 10 Observations: Week of June 16th, 2023

By June 16, 2023 June 26th, 2023 No Comments

Hello

We start the top ten with a couple pieces on a very important subject. The bank rate has hit the highest level in over 20 years in Canada and the last rate hike is a sign that the Bank of Canada wants reduced government spending. Paul Volcker was quite open about this in the 1980’s and now we have a situation where these high short-term rates are having big consequences to Canadians. We have the highest per capita household debt in the G-7 and the CIBC Economist gives his warning signals. Also, you know when the Toronto Star is also on this story, it must be important. Canary in the Coal Mine?

COP 28 is in the Middle East later in the year and check out how the CEO of the oldest Middle East Energy entity deals with the criticism that it is taking place there.

Stewart Muir comments on how our Premier has a bit of a different attitude on LNG after visiting Japan. Stewart gives his take on how we need to have a balanced conversation in this area but isn’t interesting that it is ok to export our gas but consumers in BC are only going to be given the option of electric in their homes.

The brilliant people at Doomberg look at some plans in Ireland with their cow population. I hope some common sense prevails again and as one friend says;  “mad cow disease is running through politicians.” (story attached)

Bill Blain was the guest on Macro Voices, and he provides a great overview on many aspects of the markets.

Jim Thorne points to a CNBC article on AI and explains how to take advantage of this big movement.

Things are sure changing in China and Foreign Affairs does a great job explaining the many challenges its leader has. (story attached)

A piece from Bloomberg as Shell pivots back towards oil and gas. Another incremental sign that the tides may be turning against ESG. (story attached)

A couple articles about the LIV Tour that got a lot attention. Bruce Dowbiggin examines the NHL and it’s just a matter of time before the NHL looks at the huge sums of money the countries in the Middle East have. The ‘Disease of More’ was a well written piece and as we are seeing that in all aspects of society it comes down to money.

It was a magical day in Toronto last Sunday as Nick Taylor won the RBC Canadian Open. It was a feel-good story at a time when our country needed it the most. Congrats Nick.

David and Amy

Number 1 - Governments shunting 'dirty work' on inflation to Bank of Canada, CIBC says

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/governments-shunting-dirty-work-on-inflation-to-bank-of-canada-cibc-says-1.1932115

The Bank of Canada will have to keep rates higher for longer unless governments do more to dial back their spending, one of the country’s largest commercial lenders warned.

 

Financial warnings for Canada from the U.S. debt-ceiling game of chicken | The Star

https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2023/06/10/financial-warnings-for-canada-from-the-us-debt-ceiling-game-of-chicken.html

Number 4 - Got Milk? - Doomberg

https://doomberg.substack.com/p/got-milk?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=343139&post_id=127814169&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email

This action by the EU will hurt its citizens far more than it punishes countries looking to export to the region. Finished goods will simply be redirected to friendlier economies, resulting in a range of painful shortages and a pulse of inflation in Europe. What it won’t do is reduce global carbon emissions.

https://schneiderwealth.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Got-Milk.pdf

Number 5 - Macro Voices - Bill Blain

MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Bill Blain to the show to discuss whether inflation is transitory, sticky, or secular, the outlook for yields and equity markets, artificial intelligence, precious metals, and much more. https://bit.ly/42KlbcZ

https://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-379-bill-blain-inflation-central-banks-brics-geopolitics-alternative-assets-more/

Number 7 - What Does the West Really Know About Xi’s China? | Foreign Affairs

Good article on how Xi is changing China (for the worse!)
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/what-does-west-really-know-about-xis-china

 

“ Xi’s own biggest fear must be that, rather than presiding over China’s inevitable rise, he is chairing his country’s emerging decline. The economy is not doing well under the triple whammy of unnecessary and unpredictable government intervention, COVID-19 aftereffects, and declining rates of investment, both domestic and foreign. Meanwhile, the CCP has helped provoke severe diplomatic conflicts with all of China’s main markets in Australia, Japan, Europe, and North America. And the country is facing demographic decline at a scale and speed never seen before in the modern era. All of this must make Xi fear that instead of being a twenty-first-century Stalin or Mao, he may end up instead as China’s Brezhnev, catalyzing the gradual erosion of the values he holds dear.”

 

https://schneiderwealth.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/What-Does-the-West-Really-Know-About-Xi.pdf

We hope you found the Top Ten interesting this week, and are looking forward to another selection of articles, stories, and commentary next week. If you know of anyone else who would be interested in receiving our weekly note, please let me know.

 

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