Hello
This week’s top ten starts with a budget summary from KPMG. I then added a couple stories about the budget and it is interesting to read Andrew Coyne’s commentary.
Brian Belski was on BNN this week and he thinks it will be a stock picking market for the next 3 to 5 years.
I always must share the wisdom of Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, even when they pick on our industry. I also liked how they closed their presentation (make sure you watch).
Doomberg produced an interesting commentary on Gold and Bitcoin which are investments I have always struggled to figure out.
The people at Big Media produce such good and important articles and their specialist on resource and environment issues is Brad Hayes. Brad looked at the earthquakes in Peace River and addressed how the mainstream media reported on them.
Steve Saretsky’s weekly piece addressed the balancing act with immigration and the housing and rental challenges. As he says,
“Not sure where we go from here but its a mess. Whatever we’re doing, it ain’t working. Perhaps we should consider slowing immigration until we can figure out how to adequately house our existing citizens. Or maybe policy makers need to step aside and let the entrepreneurial spirit of the free market solve this. Ease zoning, reduce permit times and get building. Everything is a choice.”
Another piece on how long this energy transition will take place from JPMorgan’s Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, The piece is titled ‘Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence’.
The brilliant Pippa Malmgren was on Macro Voices. Pippa may be the finest geopolitical mind on the planet and her and her father have helped many Presidents.
She also said that it was the Pentagon bailed out the SVB….the technology minds needed to be protected for military uses.
She also talked about the Little Giant Strategy in China….even parts of the F-35 had Chinese components
Baseball starts their 2023 season this week and one person not around to see opening day is Vin Scully. Vin passed away last August at the age of 94 and I have to again share part of the tribute night they did for him in 2016. Kevin Costner’s speech is so memorable and at the time when there is so polarization and bitterness in society, I thought this video is a reminder of what joy and pleasure things like baseball give back to us. It was nice seeing the sunny day at Yankee Stadium this am.
Have a great weekend!
David and Amy
Number 1 - Budget Summary - KPMG
Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland delivered the 2023 federal budget on March 28, 2023. The budget expects a deficit of $43 billion for 2022-23 and forecasts deficits of $40.1 billion for 2023-24, and $35 billion for 2024-25. Although the budget does not change the federal personal or corporate tax rates, it does make new changes to broaden the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) by disallowing certain deductions and increasing the AMT capital gains inclusion rate to 100% (from 80%), among other adjustments.
https://schneiderwealth.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/ca-2023-federal-budget-highlights.pdf
Number 2 - Budget Reaction
Financial Post: ‘Our country can’t borrow its way to prosperity’: Business reacts to budget 2023
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/federal-budget-2023-business-economists-mixed-reaction
“If the government wanted to strangle economic growth, this is the budget it would produce”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-liberals-growth-agenda-was-nice-while-it-lasted/
Number 3 - Brian Belski
Brian says it is back to a stock picking market for the next 3 to 5 years.
Number 4 - Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger - Most Financial Advisors Know Nothing About Investing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-w56z0JEms
Warren at the end says he wants to be judged on the second half of his life, not the first. Charlie agreed saying when he was young, he was embarrassing.
Number 5 - Gold in Handcuffs? - Doomberg
“Make new friends, but keep the old. One is silver, the other is gold.” – Joseph Parry
The overlap in the Venn diagram of motivations for owning Bitcoin and for owning gold is more comprehensive than many gold enthusiasts are comfortable admitting. Both are considered assets that can be held outside the government’s reach. Both have a certain “moneyness” about them, with many believing each is a more durable store of value than fiat currency. While gold has existed for thousands of years and its current total market value dwarfs that of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has the potential to grow as an easier medium of exchange in the modern digital era. In essence, Bitcoin and gold are slightly different embodiments of solutions to the same problem.
Number 6 - Peace River earthquakes – did the media get it right this time?
https://big-media.ca/peace-river-earthquakes-did-the-media-get-it-right-this-time/
Our society would be better served if news organizations reported on environmental issues in a reasoned and impartial fashion, respecting good science and careful regulation. Events such as the Peace River earthquakes take expertise, time, and good data to understand – and major news outlets did a good job in this case. Consumers of news are well advised to ignore the marginal media players with axes to grind, that publish uninformed speculation and unfounded dramatizations, and ridicule regulators without supporting facts.
Number 8 - Barron’s - ‘Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence’
An article in Barron’s profiling a report by JPMorgan’s Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy titled ‘Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence’. For those interested, the report can be found here. It is a rather lengthy and in-depth report packed with a bunch of charts and perspective on global energy. A few of the notable quotes that were highlighted by Barron’s:
“Decarbonization of energy use will be a gradual process. After $6.3 trillion spent on renewable energy and another $3.3 trillion spent on electricity networks since 2005, global energy use is still~80% reliant on fossil fuels, from a low of 70% in Europe to 86% in EM ex-China. The global measure has declined by just 5% since 2005 due to challenges electrifying industrial, commercial, residential and transport energy.”
“I remain totally unconvinced that starving the oil & gas industry of capital will make the transition go any faster, particularly since new pools of capital will step in as long as demand for fossil fuels exists. Such an approach could also expose countries to energy shortages that renewables are currently unable to fill.”
“The U.S. now supports biofuels with $10 billion in tax credits for new production and infrastructure, but the boost to biofuels as a share of transport fuel use may be just 2%-3% on top of existing ethanol consumption,” he wrote.
“Similarly, renewable aviation fuels (RAF) may represent just 1% of global jet fuel consumption 5 years from now, with the U.S. possibly reaching 2% with a $1.75 per gallon Sustainable Aviation Fuel Credit in the energy bill. RAF pathways need more compelling proof statements than anything we’ve seen so far…estimated costs for renewable aviation fuels are 2x-8x higher than jet fuel prices.”
– Michael Cembalest
Number 9 - MacroVoices #369 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Perspective on the Further Geopolitical Escalation
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:
- Causes of recent increased nuclear escalation risks
- Possibility of China to annex the Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Where is China/US relations headed?
- The Pentagon’s involvement in SVB bailout
- The ‘little giant’ strategy
Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]
Number 10 - Vin Scully
One of the most iconic nights in Baseball was on September 24th, 2016. Kevin Costner and others celebrated the career of the greatest baseball announcer. Costner’s tribute to Vin Scully was second to none and it reminded you of the magic of baseball.
We hope you found the Top Ten interesting this week, and are looking forward to another selection of articles, stories, and commentary next week. If you know of anyone else who would be interested in receiving our weekly note, please let me know.
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