Hello,
This week’s top ten kicks off with a dose of wisdom from Howard Marks, who always has a way of distilling complex changes in the financial landscape.
Peter and I have our sights firmly set on the Uranium sector. You’ll find a compelling interview with Adam Rozencwajg that encapsulates our bullish thesis on this subject.
For our Canadian friends, here’s an essential heads-up: there’s a looming deadline on October 31st that might have escaped many. The Underused Housing Tax is now in effect, and I’ve included a link for further information. Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have questions about this.
The brilliant Ole. S Hansen was on Macro Voices and his discussion about commodities is timely and many read throughs to Canada.
Bloomberg ran a piece discussing the banning of cellphones in schools, a curious shift given the recent push for digital learning tools in the classroom.
There are a lot of stories of our CPP program, and the National Post explains some of the reasons why there are some battles out there.
Switching gears, David Brooks penned a thought-provoking commentary in The New York Times, offering a sneak peek into his new book. Pair it with “Can Happiness Be Taught?” by Athony Lane, and you have a duo of pieces worth sharing, especially in our current times when empathy and joy are needed more than ever.
Moving to sports, the remarkable story of the US 8-man rowing team from the University of Washington is about to hit the big screen thanks to George Clooney’s upcoming film, set to release on Christmas Day. My industry buddy’s son is finishing his 4th year at U of W and he will probably be on Canada’s team in the 8-man.
In the world of rugby, anticipation is mounting for the impending showdown between South Africa and New Zealand, generating quite a buzz. This match holds particular significance for my new assistant, Gina Smith, as her family recently made the move from South Africa. Notably, South Africa achieved victory in the Rugby World Cup on Gina’s birthday in 2007, and they currently hold the title of defending champions from the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
Wishing you a fantastic weekend.
David and Gina
Number 1-Further Thoughts on Sea Change-Howard Marks
This memo’s main message is that the changes I described in Sea Change aren’t just usual cyclical fluctuations; rather, taken together, they represent a sweeping alteration of the investment environment, calling for significant capital reallocation.
If the declining and/or ultra-low interest rates of the easy-money period aren’t going to be the rule in the years ahead, numerous consequences seem probable:
- economic growth may be slower;
- profit margins may erode;
- default rates may head higher;
- asset appreciation may not be as reliable;
- the cost of borrowing won’t trend downward consistently (though interest rates raised to fight inflation likely will be permitted to recede somewhat once inflation eases);
- investor psychology may not be as uniformly positive; and
- businesses may not find it as easy to obtain financing.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/further-thoughts-on-sea-change
Number 2-Adam Rozencwajg: Uranium at Inflection Point, Will Get ``Completely Out of Hand``
(I have heard many stories about this new tax and the headaches to accountants and possibly some Canadians that do not know they may have title on properties)
http://Adam Rozencwajg: Uranium at Inflection Point, Will Get “Completely Out of Hand” – YouTube
Number 3-Underused Housing Tax
(I have heard many stories about this new tax and the headaches to accountants and possibly some Canadians that do not know they may have title on properties)
https://www.canada.ca/en/services/taxes/excise-taxes-duties-and-levies/underused-housing-tax.html
Number 4- MacroVoices #399 Ole S Hansen: Still Bullish Commodities
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ole S Hansen to MacroVoices. Erik and Ole discuss:
- The state of the commodity sector
- Inflation, commodity prices and supply chain issues
- Commodity market backwardation
- Gold Investments
- Gold, interest rates and metal demands
- Industrial metals and crude oil trends
- Oil production capacity and geopolitical tensions
- Oil market analysis and Commitment of Traders report
- Market trends and analysis
Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]
Number 7- The Essential Skills for Being Human-David Brooks
We sometimes think that really great people perform the sorts of epic acts of altruism that might earn them Nobel Peace Prizes. But the novelist and philosopher Iris Murdoch argued that the essential moral skill is being considerate to others in the complex circumstances of everyday life. Morality is about how we interact with each other minute by minute.
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By now you’d think I’d be a regular Oprah, enveloping people in a warm beam of attention, encouraging them to be themselves. I’m not, and I don’t. I enter into a conversation vowing to be other-centered, then I have a glass of wine, and I start blabbing funny stories I know. My ego takes the wheel in ways I regret afterward. But there has been a comprehensive shift in my posture. I think I’m more approachable, vulnerable. I know more about human psychology than I used to. I have a long way to go, but I’m evidence that people can change, sometimes dramatically, even in middle and older age
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/social-skills-connection.htm
Number 8- Can Happiness Be Taught?
Bolstered by Oprah, a Harvard Business School professor thinks you should run your inner self like a company.
How most of us would rate our personal happiness these days, even without the Bay of Pigs to look forward to, is not something that Arthur C. Brooks and Oprah Winfrey presume to plot on a graph. I suspect, however, that in their view most of us are weltering in a woe of our own devising, and that, unlike Beethoven, we can’t even get a decent symphony out of it. Hence Brooks’s most provoking sentence of all, which is tucked away in parentheses, lest it disturb our equanimity. “(Unhappy people make great consumers),” he writes. And there we arrive at the heart of the matter. “Build the Life You Want” is the pure product of a liberal capitalist democracy: First World fretting, one might say, politely disguised as universal wisdom. It both springs from and speaks to an unmistakable patch of the planet, and, with the aid of muscular marketing and the imprimatur of Oprah, it will be ingested by those whose dolor, to their bewilderment, has been aggravated rather than soothed by mass consumption. “Turn off self-view on Zoom. Don’t take any selfies,” we read, in this rousing hymn to self-help. Round and round we go.
Number 9: THE BOYS IN THE BOAT Trailer (2023) Joel Edgerton, George Clooney
The Boys in the Boat is a true story based on the struggles and sacrifices made by the University of Washington rowing team to compete at the highest possible level, rowing at the 1936 Summer Olympics – Men’s eight.[1] Joseph Sutton-Holcomb from The Seattle Times mentions that Brown got the idea to write this book when his neighbor Judy Willman walked into his home in Redmond, Washington. She said that her father on hospice, Joe Rantz, was a fan of his works and wanted to have a conversation with the author.[2] That encounter with Judy ignited a conversation with Joe Rantz about life during the Great Depression, which led to an in-depth chat about his time as a rower at the University of Washington.[2] Growing up, Joe felt ostracized by his father and stepmother and was seen as disposable, which correlates to how many people during that time felt.[2] The Depression brought about so much uncertainty, and people felt as if they did not have any control over their own lives.[1]
We hope you found the Top Ten interesting this week, and are looking forward to another selection of articles, stories, and commentary next week. If you know of anyone else who would be interested in receiving our weekly note, please let me know.
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